Roma's second-half problem: the numbers behind the collapse after the break
Roma's comeback defeat at Manchester United has revived a pattern that has followed the club for several weeks: a side often bright in the first half but far more vulnerable after the interval. The numbers confirm the phenomenon, though with an important qualification. The problem lies less in attacking output than in the ability to defend, control and manage games in the second half. In Serie A, after ten matchdays Roma have scored 13 goals in the first halves and 15 in the second, so there is no scoring collapse; they actually score slightly more after the break. The picture changes completely at the other end. Roma have conceded just 2 goals in the first 45 minutes and 8 after the interval, four times as many. While across the league about 55% of goals are scored in the second half, in Roma's case 80% of the goals conceded arrive after the break. Broadening the analysis to the four Champions League matches played so far, the gap becomes even clearer. In their 14 official matches across league and cup, Roma have scored exactly the same number of goals in each half: 19 in the first and 19 in the second. But they have conceded only 3 before the interval and as many as 15 after it. That means 83% of the goals conceded this season have come in the second half. Their goal difference moves from an impressive +16 in first halves to just +4 in second halves. Treating each half as a small match of its own, Roma's first halves show 9 wins, 4 draws and one defeat. Their second halves produce 8 wins, one draw and 5 defeats. This does not mean Roma play badly in every second half: in Serie A they are third in the table built solely on second-half results. It does mean that Gasperini's side becomes much less stable after the 45th minute, especially when the game shifts momentum. The examples are mounting. Against Inter, Roma led 2-0 at half-time and lost the second half 0-2. In Istanbul against Fenerbahçe they led 1-0 and finished 1-1, suffering badly after the equaliser. Against Real Madrid the problem came even later: Roma led 3-1 in the 57th minute, then conceded three goals between the 83rd and 90th minutes and lost 4-3. In Udine, after a practically perfect first half that ended 4-0, the second half finished 2-1 to the hosts before Ghilardi's goal in stoppage time. The most dramatic case remains Old Trafford. Roma went into the break against Manchester United leading 2-0, after a first half of the highest level. In the second half they practically disappeared: zero shots for Roma, 10 for United, five of them on target, and 2.48 expected goals produced by the English side. The second-half result of 3-0 turned a possible shock into one of the most painful defeats of the season. Still, it would be wrong to turn the trend into an absolute rule. Against Genoa, Roma were goalless at half-time and won the second half 2-0; against Slovan Bratislava they scored two goals in each half; in Naples, after trailing 1-0 at the break, they won the second half 3-2 to snatch a 3-3 draw. There is therefore no systematic collapse in attack or in physical condition. There is, however, a figure that is hard to ignore: before the interval Roma concede very little, after it they become five times more vulnerable. That, more than the goals scored, is probably where Roma's real second-half problem lies.
