Serie A·20 April 2026·114d ago

Champions League now a distant prospect for Roma as tiebreaker scenarios favour rivals

Source: Forza Roma

Roma's path to the Champions League has become increasingly difficult following results for Milan and Juventus. With several matches remaining in the 2025–26 season, the mathematical targets are stark: Roma and Como would reach 73 points if they win all remaining fixtures, but Milan would clinch a Champions League place on 73 points alone due to head-to-head advantage over both Roma and Como. The club needs 15 more points to reach the target of 74 needed for arithmetic qualification.

In any level-points scenario across the remaining contenders, Roma faces unfavourable tiebreaker situations. The analysis of direct fixtures shows Roma trailing Milan, Napoli, Juventus, and Atalanta in head-to-head records or goal difference. Most damaging: Roma and Como would be level on head-to-head meetings, but Como would advance on goal difference. Gasperini's side faces a fixture against Atalanta where the head-to-head advantage lies with their opponents. Milan need 7 more points, Napoli 8, and Juventus 11. Roma's only favourable direct comparison is an unplayed return fixture with Napoli (0–0 in the first meeting), and an undecided Milan–Juventus encounter also at 0–0 from the first leg.

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