Capello warns Roma: history is full of matches that looked certain

Roma have entered the title race in earnest, according to Opta's season simulator, which ranks them as the second-most likely Serie A champions with a 21.74% probability of winning the league. After five matchdays and 13 points from a possible 15, the giallorossi sit level with Inter and Lazio at the top of the table, prompting serious questions among supporters about whether the squad can genuinely compete for the Scudetto. Gasperini continues to preach caution, but the numbers are beginning to place Roma in the thick of the title fight. Inter remain the algorithm's primary favourite with a 44.67% chance of winning the championship, a substantial lead ahead of Roma. The gap between Roma and the chasing pack is already significant: Como are given 10.28%, Juventus 8.91%, and Milan 5.46%. Beyond the title race, Opta's projections suggest Roma have a 73.92% probability of finishing in Champions League qualification positions. These figures represent merely a snapshot after just five rounds of play and will shift materially as the season develops, but they underscore how crucial Roma's opening spell has been under Gasperini. Four consecutive victories had brought Roma to a perfect record before the Inter clash at the Olimpico. The 2–2 draw, despite frustration over surrendering a two-goal advantage with goals from Manu Koné in the first half, offered perhaps the most telling signal: Roma proved capable of matching the side the algorithm still regards as the primary title favourite in direct competition. Gasperini's team demonstrated they belong in a fight previously considered beyond their reach at this stage of the campaign.

Paulo Dybala has emerged as a rejuvenated force for Roma this season, but head coach Gian Piero Gasperini is demanding greater intensity in the final third. The Argentine forward has appeared in all six league and Champions League matches so far, accumulating 497 minutes across both competitions—third among Roma's outfield players behind Bryan Cristante (514 minutes) and Mario Hermoso (509 minutes)—yet remains goalless in his last 13 matches. Gasperini is pushing Dybala for more direct contributions, calling for increased sprints, dribbling and shots on goal as Roma prepare for the resumption of their campaign. Dybala arrives refreshed after a meticulously planned summer of physical conditioning work and targeted preparation during the current international break, his excellent fitness level unlocking a new dimension to his play. The 32-year-old has backed himself with a radical contract restructuring, accepting a 72 per cent salary reduction in exchange for a performance-based renewal built almost entirely around bonus payments. Under the new terms, Dybala earns an additional €100,000 for each match he starts with a minimum 45 minutes on the pitch, up to a maximum of 20 appearances—worth €2 million extra on top of his €2.2 million fixed salary. If he comes off the bench and plays at least 20 minutes, he receives €75,000 per appearance. From the 21st match with at least 45 minutes played, the bonus increases to €150,000 per game. The structure rewards consistency and performance, with more minutes and goals or assists driving higher earnings as Dybala aims to recapture his best form.

Paulo Dybala has rediscovered his form for Roma under Gasperini, free from the physical problems that plagued him and operating at an excellent athletic level. The manager now considers him the club's focal point but is asking for one addition: more clinical finishing to return to scoring regularly. Dybala, in his fifth season in giallorosso, has left behind the fragility of the past. With Gasperini he has found consistency, minutes and confidence: he runs, fights, sacrifices himself for the team. In this season's opening phase he has already played 497 minutes across six matches in Serie A and the Champions League, third in the squad for playing time behind Cristante and Hermoso. He has provided four decisive assists, the fruit of detailed summer preparation and targeted work during the international break that allowed him to miss no training. In the top-table clash against Inter he embodied this new spirit: 9.5 km covered, battling for every ball, defending, sacrifice and four shots at Martinez's goal. The only missing piece is the goal, which has eluded him since 13 matches ago, from 18 January against Torino. Gasperini now wants the Joya to become a finisher again, ending a drought that stretches back to January. This sits within a total growth process confirmed by his new contract: an agreement built on bonuses and incentives tied to appearances, goals and assists, a sign the Argentine has chosen to genuinely bet on himself and his future at Roma.